Channeling Bruce Lee, DHL’s John Pearson cites global trade growth despite disruptions
28 Jul 20255 min read
Summary
- Despite short-term downturns like China’s 35% drop in trade due to U.S. tariffs, DHL’s CEO John Pearson emphasized long-term optimism for global trade. Drawing from the DHL Trade Atlas 2025, he noted that global trade has weathered past disruptions and will continue to evolve and grow, even if at a slower pace.
- DHL is betting on “Geographic Tailwinds 20” — emerging high-potential markets like India, UAE, Philippines, and Indonesia — as future growth drivers. These markets benefit from strong FDI, logistics infrastructure, and their role in the “China plus one” diversification trend.
- DHL is betting on “Geographic Tailwinds 20," emerging high-potential markets like India, UAE, Philippines, and Indonesia, as future growth drivers. These markets benefit from strong FDI, logistics infrastructure, and their role in the “China plus one” diversification trend.
I did not expect to hear a CEO channel Bruce Lee when describing the economic “way of life” now, but then the trade barriers we are hearing about in the last few months certainly feels more “KungFu” than the usual government diplomacy. The reports on the death of international trade are greatly exaggerated, long live global trade.This was the optimistic message from DHL on how even as one country is seemingly retreating from global trade, the march towards more trade will prevail. Value Chain Asia recently attended a media tour organised by the DHL Group in Dubai on June 10, 2025 and aside from their recent €500 million investment into the Middle East region, Pearson took the opportunity to introduce the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 published at the start of this year. What stood out was Pearson’s confidence in the long-term growth of international trade. While he admitted that the short-term outlook ‘looks bleak,’ he stressed that DHL expects global trade to remain resilient despite uncertainty. He specifically cited an Associated Press report noting that China recorded a 35% drop in trade value for May 2025, following the latest round of U.S. tariffs. The reports on the death of international trade are greatly exaggerated, long live global trade.Pearson noted how global trade growth has outlived previous trade disruptive events such as Brexit and the first Trump presidency. Today, DHL is of the firm belief that global trade will grow and internationalization will continue as markets adjust demand and supply changes to fulfil trade flows for new sets of consumers.
Trade winds of change
From the Trade Atlas report which was co-authored by DHL with the NYU Stern School of Business, Pearson highlighted DHL’s global network and its significance in facilitating trade. He emphasized that global trade extends beyond major routes like London to Frankfurt, encompassing diverse locations such as Papua New Guinea to Chile and El Salvador to Muscat. Notably, only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced around the world ends up in a different country from where it was produced. According to the report, this indicated substantial opportunities for international trade growth. It also noted that trade will grow but at a slower pace, uncertainty remains high, and long-distance trade is still prevalent. Building on these macro insights, DHL is turning its attention to where future trade growth will come from — across emerging sectors and dynamic economies.Pearson oriented the media audience, journalists largely based out of the UAE, on the DHL Group strategy for sustainable growth by 2030. The five key growth vectors include new energy, life sciences and healthcare, ecommerce, digital sales and GT20.Codenamed “Geographic Tailwinds 20” or GT20, these are upcoming markets that are showing great potential for growth: the positive “winds of change” for trade. These GT20 markets were identified based on IMF and WTO data, with India and the UAE noted for strong foreign direct investment and satisfactory national logistics policies.Moreover, beneficiaries of the ‘China plus one’ strategy are also showing promise as companies diversify their presence to better serve customers in those markets. Countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are part of this change.
The Middle East’s time to shine
Pearson highlighted the UAE’s importance as the fifth largest contributor in terms of total volume of new trade generated over the last five years as contribution to DHL’s performance. This volume is expected to maintain a similar position in the coming years. This reflects the projected 5 – 6% trade growth in the Middle East, surpassing the world average. According to Pearson, this is driven by increasing logistic infrastructure and favorable customs environments.This was followed when Pearson took pains to showcase customer retention. He noted that losing a small customer is more concerning than not winning a large one, as it reflects potential issues with service quality, sales, or pricing. From that, DHL aims to support customers by providing tools and knowledge related to warehouses, free trade zones, and customs strategies to respond effectively to trade dynamics. Specifically, DHL aims to bridge gaps caused by tariffs by advising customers on strategies to recoup, avoid, or defer costs, and by identifying trade opportunities within their industries.When asked directly about the specific breakdown of the €500 million investment in the Middle East, the DHL team stopped short of detailing how much would be allocated to individual sectors or business units. Instead, they reiterated DHL’s commitment to investing across all parts of the business — from Express and Global Forwarding to eCommerce and Supply Chain — to strengthen the Middle East’s role as a trade hub.DHL’s message in Dubai was clear: global trade is not dead, it’s just adapting. With investments like DHL’s, a focus on markets like the Middle East, and a belief that “trade is like water,” DHL is positioning itself to lead the next phase of global commerce, whatever shape it takes.