DP World Survey: Trade leaders upbeat on 2026 despite rising barriers
21 Jan 20263 min read
Summary
- DP World’s Global Trade Observatory survey shows 94% of executives expect 2026 trade growth to match or exceed 2025, even as most anticipate higher trade barriers and policy uncertainty. Only a quarter foresee negative business impacts, highlighting a strong disconnect between frontline sentiment and more cautious macro forecasts.
- Executives identify Europe and China as the top sources of trade growth in 2026, followed by Asia Pacific and North America, suggesting continued diversification rather than a single dominant growth engine.
- Companies are redesigning supply chains through supplier diversification, higher inventories, and friend-shoring, while exploring new trade routes to cut costs and reduce delays. Customs clearance remains the biggest bottleneck, driving calls for greater investment in logistics hubs, transport networks, and border infrastructure.
DAVOS, SWITZERLAND – 20 January 2026: The global trade outlook looks fragile. Business confidence does not. That’s the core finding of DP World’s new Global Trade Observatory (GTO) Annual Outlook Report 2026, showing 94% of respondents expect 2026 trade growth to match or exceed the pace of 2025, despite rising frictions and volatility. The findings are based on a survey of 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries, conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos. In total, 54% expect trade growth to be faster than 2025 and 40% expect it to be equal. This is despite 53% anticipating high or very high policy uncertainty, 90% expecting trade barriers to rise or remain unchanged. Only 25% expect a negative impact on their business, with 49% expecting no effect and 26% even seeing a positive impact. This frontline sentiment contrasts with some macro projections, with the IMF forecasting trade growth (by volume) could slow to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025. Asked where trade growth potential is greatest in 2026, executives most frequently pointed to Europe (22%) and China (17%), followed by Asia Pacific (14%) and North America (13%).
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“Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably,” says Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World.
What companies are doing differently in 2026
• Resilience as strategy: Supplier diversification (51%), higher inventories (44%), and friend-shoring (36%) are cited among the most common strategic shifts planned for 2026.• Route agility increases: 26% intend to use new routes, while 23% are evaluating them. Decisions are driven by cost savings (38%), improved connectivity/inland infrastructure (36%), and faster customs procedures/clearance times (35%).• Border friction remains a choke point: 60% cite customs clearance as a leading cause of delays and disruption. Executives also prioritise investment in warehousing and logistics hubs (39%), road networks (36%), and border/customs processing infrastructure (36%).
About DP World
DP World is reshaping the future of global trade to improve lives everywhere. Operating across six continents with a team of over 125,000 employees, we combine global infrastructure and local expertise to deliver seamless supply chain solutions. From Ports and Terminals to Marine Services, Logistics and Technology, we leverage innovation to create better ways to trade, minimizing disruptions from the factory floor to the customer’s door. In Asia Pacific, DP World employs over 15,000 people across 22 geographies. We operate 17 ports and terminals, complemented by a comprehensive suite of end-to-end supply chain solutions - to connect the region to the rest of the world.