Asia’s warehouse labour shortage runs deeper than the PMI recovery story implies
25 May 20265 min read
Summary
- ManpowerGroup data shows 77% of APAC employers reporting persistent difficulty filling positions, and warehouse operators report shortages that drive operational costs higher across the region.
- Manufacturing PMI readings from the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand all softened or contracted in April 2026, undermining the cyclical-recovery interpretation that some executives have drawn from earlier months.
- The structural problem matters more than the headline reading because if business confidence rebuilds, operators may find the labour they expected to come back has migrated, retired or moved to higher-paid sectors.
Warehouse and logistics operators across Asia are reporting persistent labour shortages that are harder to read as a cyclical hiring problem the longer the data accumulates.
ManpowerGroup’s 2025 Talent Shortage survey reports that 77% of APAC employers face difficulty filling positions, the highest figure of any global region. Prologis reports that warehouse operators struggle to source enough labour to meet operational demand and that the constraint is feeding into operating cost inflation across the sector.
The data sits awkwardly alongside the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings that supply chain executives use to read demand conditions. April 2026 PMI prints from S&P Global show the Philippines contracting at 48.3 and Indonesia falling to 49.1, its first contraction since June 2025. Vietnam slipped to 50.5 and Thailand to 52.7 in the same month, both losing momentum from March readings. Several executives have read recent months as a cyclical dip with a recovery in sight. The workforce data tells a different story underneath, and the gap between the two readings is what makes 2026 hiring planning harder than it looks on the surface.
What the workforce data actually says
ManpowerGroup’s 2025 survey, published in early 2025 and covering 41 countries, found that 77% of APAC employers struggled to find the skilled workers they needed. The Asia-Pacific figure exceeded the global average and was driven by labour-market tightness in manufacturing hubs including Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand. Robert Walters’ contingent workforce analysis for APAC reports that 58% of APAC companies are now using contingent labour as a structural response, not just to manage peak loads.
The composition of the gap is observable in the kinds of operator-level roles industry publications consistently report unfilled: forklift operators trained on warehouse-management systems, cross-dock supervisors, last-mile drivers handling proof-of-delivery technology, and reefer-truck operators trained on cold-chain protocols. These are roles that pay above unskilled wages but below office-level salaries, and they have lost candidates to higher-paying alternatives in retail and gig delivery.
Prologis observes that the operational impact shows up as higher overtime spend, lower throughput per labour hour, and delayed onboarding for new contracts. Operators interviewed by HR Asia describe vacancy durations stretching from weeks into months for supervisor-level positions, particularly in secondary-tier cities where the talent pool is thinner.
Why this argues against a clean PMI recovery
A PMI reading is a measure of new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchases. When a PMI prints below 50 and then rebounds, the implicit assumption is that the labour, the suppliers and the customers are all still where they were the last time output was healthy. Asia’s warehouse labour data challenges that assumption. The Talent Traction 2026 Transportation and Logistics Workforce Shortage report estimates that fewer young workers are entering physically demanding logistics roles than are retiring or moving to adjacent sectors, with the gap widening every year since 2022.
Robert Walters’ analysis of APAC contingent workforce trends shows that the move to contingent labour is not a stopgap. Employers are restructuring their workforce mix because they cannot guarantee permanent hires will materialise. That restructuring carries real cost: contingent workers cost more per hour, training cycles repeat with each rotation, and customer service-level agreements become harder to honour when shift coverage is variable.
Reading the data for 2026 procurement planning
For manufacturers planning 2026 logistics capacity in Asia, the structural reading means that 3PL contracts negotiated on the assumption of stable labour costs will need rebid clauses for wage inflation. The Talent Traction analysis projects that logistics wages in APAC tier-1 hubs will rise faster than headline consumer inflation through 2027, driven by the same labour-supply contraction. Manufacturers entering new ASEAN markets should expect to find that the cheapest labour-cost component of their China+n calculus is less stable than the spreadsheet implies.
ManpowerGroup also notes that 35% of APAC companies are now investing in upskilling and reskilling their existing workforce as an alternative to external hiring. That is a long-cycle response. It does not fix shift coverage in the next six months. Manufacturers that depend on warehouse throughput for committed delivery windows should expect their logistics partners to push for either longer notice periods on volume changes or higher base rates that cover the contingent-labour premium.
What to watch over the next two quarters
Three indicators matter through to Q3 2026. The first is whether ManpowerGroup’s next Talent Shortage survey, due later in 2026, shows the APAC difficulty figure rising or falling. A move above 77% would confirm the structural reading; a move below would suggest the gap is closing. The second is whether Asian 3PLs begin announcing wage-rise pass-throughs as standard contract clauses, which would mark the moment the labour cost stops being absorbed by operators and starts being charged to manufacturers. The third is whether Vietnam and Thailand, the two markets where April PMI readings remained in expansion, hold those readings into Q2 or whether they follow Indonesia and the Philippines below 50. If they do, the cyclical reading will look harder to defend.
The PMI gives executives a number to discuss in board meetings. The workforce data gives operations directors a constraint to plan around. The two are pointing in different directions, and the operators are the ones who will have to bridge the difference.
ManpowerGroup’s 2025 Talent Shortage survey reports that 77% of APAC employers face difficulty filling positions, the highest figure of any global region. Prologis reports that warehouse operators struggle to source enough labour to meet operational demand and that the constraint is feeding into operating cost inflation across the sector.
The data sits awkwardly alongside the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings that supply chain executives use to read demand conditions. April 2026 PMI prints from S&P Global show the Philippines contracting at 48.3 and Indonesia falling to 49.1, its first contraction since June 2025. Vietnam slipped to 50.5 and Thailand to 52.7 in the same month, both losing momentum from March readings. Several executives have read recent months as a cyclical dip with a recovery in sight. The workforce data tells a different story underneath, and the gap between the two readings is what makes 2026 hiring planning harder than it looks on the surface.
What the workforce data actually says
ManpowerGroup’s 2025 survey, published in early 2025 and covering 41 countries, found that 77% of APAC employers struggled to find the skilled workers they needed. The Asia-Pacific figure exceeded the global average and was driven by labour-market tightness in manufacturing hubs including Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand. Robert Walters’ contingent workforce analysis for APAC reports that 58% of APAC companies are now using contingent labour as a structural response, not just to manage peak loads.
The composition of the gap is observable in the kinds of operator-level roles industry publications consistently report unfilled: forklift operators trained on warehouse-management systems, cross-dock supervisors, last-mile drivers handling proof-of-delivery technology, and reefer-truck operators trained on cold-chain protocols. These are roles that pay above unskilled wages but below office-level salaries, and they have lost candidates to higher-paying alternatives in retail and gig delivery.
Prologis observes that the operational impact shows up as higher overtime spend, lower throughput per labour hour, and delayed onboarding for new contracts. Operators interviewed by HR Asia describe vacancy durations stretching from weeks into months for supervisor-level positions, particularly in secondary-tier cities where the talent pool is thinner.
Why this argues against a clean PMI recovery
A PMI reading is a measure of new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchases. When a PMI prints below 50 and then rebounds, the implicit assumption is that the labour, the suppliers and the customers are all still where they were the last time output was healthy. Asia’s warehouse labour data challenges that assumption. The Talent Traction 2026 Transportation and Logistics Workforce Shortage report estimates that fewer young workers are entering physically demanding logistics roles than are retiring or moving to adjacent sectors, with the gap widening every year since 2022.
Robert Walters’ analysis of APAC contingent workforce trends shows that the move to contingent labour is not a stopgap. Employers are restructuring their workforce mix because they cannot guarantee permanent hires will materialise. That restructuring carries real cost: contingent workers cost more per hour, training cycles repeat with each rotation, and customer service-level agreements become harder to honour when shift coverage is variable.
Reading the data for 2026 procurement planning
For manufacturers planning 2026 logistics capacity in Asia, the structural reading means that 3PL contracts negotiated on the assumption of stable labour costs will need rebid clauses for wage inflation. The Talent Traction analysis projects that logistics wages in APAC tier-1 hubs will rise faster than headline consumer inflation through 2027, driven by the same labour-supply contraction. Manufacturers entering new ASEAN markets should expect to find that the cheapest labour-cost component of their China+n calculus is less stable than the spreadsheet implies.
ManpowerGroup also notes that 35% of APAC companies are now investing in upskilling and reskilling their existing workforce as an alternative to external hiring. That is a long-cycle response. It does not fix shift coverage in the next six months. Manufacturers that depend on warehouse throughput for committed delivery windows should expect their logistics partners to push for either longer notice periods on volume changes or higher base rates that cover the contingent-labour premium.
What to watch over the next two quarters
Three indicators matter through to Q3 2026. The first is whether ManpowerGroup’s next Talent Shortage survey, due later in 2026, shows the APAC difficulty figure rising or falling. A move above 77% would confirm the structural reading; a move below would suggest the gap is closing. The second is whether Asian 3PLs begin announcing wage-rise pass-throughs as standard contract clauses, which would mark the moment the labour cost stops being absorbed by operators and starts being charged to manufacturers. The third is whether Vietnam and Thailand, the two markets where April PMI readings remained in expansion, hold those readings into Q2 or whether they follow Indonesia and the Philippines below 50. If they do, the cyclical reading will look harder to defend.
The PMI gives executives a number to discuss in board meetings. The workforce data gives operations directors a constraint to plan around. The two are pointing in different directions, and the operators are the ones who will have to bridge the difference.