The US tariff case as a stress test for global trade readiness

At the heart of the issue are tariffs introduced during the Trump administration under Section 232 and Section 301 authorities, framed around national security and unfair trade practices. The US Supreme Court is reviewing whether the executive branch exceeded its delegated authority in imposing these measures, a question that goes beyond tariffs and into the structure of US trade governance itself.For businesses in Asia, however, the legal nuance matters less than the immediate consequence. Until the Court issues a final decision, all existing tariffs remain in force. There is no suspension, no pause, and no interim relief. Dr. Wenzel explained that prolonged uncertainty is the problem.US importers continue to pay duties. Global exporters shipping into the US continue to price, contract, and deliver under tariff exposure that could change, partially reverse, or remain intact depending on a ruling that has no clear timeline. But Dr. Wenzel emphasized that tariffs are not new. What is new, and destabilizing, is the lack of predictability.Historically, she explains, trade policy traditionally operates on long arcs. For example, Free trade agreements like those in the ASEAN, take years to negotiate. While tariff schedules are relatively stable, enabling businesses to plan around them. However, the current environment breaks that status quo with rapid policy shifts, court challenges, and politically driven trade measures create volatility that ripples through pricing, sourcing, and margins.This volatility affects both sides of the transaction as US importers face cost pressure and pricing instability while exporters face margin erosion, strained buyer relationships, and uncertainty over whether current sourcing strategies will remain viable.

Dr. Wenzel outlined several plausible scenarios, all of which businesses should prepare for simultaneously.Most notably is the realization that tariffs could be overturned, opening the door to refunds, retroactive claims, and renewed trade volume. Dr. Wenzel explained that tariffs could be narrowed, applying only to specific products, origins, or classifications, increasing SKU-level volatility. Or they could be upheld, locking in sustained margin pressure and forcing longer-term sourcing decisions.The key point was not to predict which scenario will occur, but to recognize that betting on a single outcome is risky. From an operational perspective, Dr. Wenzel stressed that readiness is not abstract because it shows up in systems, data, and coordination.First, businesses need visibility. That means knowing which products are tariff-sensitive, how pricing is affected, and where margins are most exposed. HS code accuracy, origin determination, and documentation discipline should be leveraged to ensure that operations are running smoothly.Second, coordination matters more than ever. Exporters, US importers, and customs brokers must stay tightly aligned as the policies change the regulatory environment. Misalignment in things like data, interpretation, or timing increases the risk of errors precisely when scrutiny is highest.Third, systems must be agile. Whether tariffs change quickly or remain in force longer than expected, companies need compliance and trade systems that can adapt without breaking. This is because manual processes slow response time and amplify risk.Moreover, Dr. Wenzel noted that many businesses today still rely on long-term fixed pricing structures that assume stable tariff conditions. In the current environment, that position in the industry is a risk in itself. She recommended avoiding rigid pricing commitments where possible, favoring shorter pricing windows such as three or six months. Contracts should also allow for renegotiation and retroactive adjustment if tariff conditions change. This flexibility protects margins and helps preserve supplier and customer relationships when external shocks occur.Crucially, she addressed a persistent misconception that surfaced early in the tariff era: the idea that one party alone “pays” the tariff. In reality, tariff costs are distributed through contract terms, pricing structures, and negotiations. How that burden is shared depends on preparation, leverage, and clarity, not headlines.

Dr. Wenzel closed with a realistic outlook. A near-term resolution is unlikely. Businesses should not expect quick relief from the courts. What they can control is their own readiness.Organizations that invest in data accuracy, system agility, contractual flexibility, and cross-functional coordination will be better positioned to absorb shocks. Those that wait for clarity before acting may find themselves reacting too late.Supply chain diversification is a must. Companies overly dependent on a single market or sourcing route are more exposed to policy shocks. Leveraging alternative sourcing locations and existing free trade agreements can reduce vulnerability.In that sense, the Supreme Court tariff case is less about the final ruling and more about what it reveals. Global trade has entered a period where uncertainty is not an exception. It is the operating environment.

Dr. Chabaporn Wenzel is a specialist in customs, international trade, export controls, sanctions, and regulatory compliance, with more than 20 years of global experience. She has held senior leadership roles across customs and tax operations, legal and government affairs, licensing, and import-export management, with deep expertise in the automotive sector. Dr. Wenzel has led major market access and compliance initiatives across Europe, the Americas, Asia Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East, helping organisations strengthen regulatory resilience and optimise global trade operations. She holds law degrees from Thammasat University and Ludwig Maximilian University, including a Doctor of Laws in international trade.

The International TradeTrust Compliance Network (ITTC Network) is a Singapore-headquartered not-for-profit organisation dedicated to advancing global supply chain compliance through collaboration, capability building, and policy leadership.ITTC Network brings together regulators, industry leaders, institutions, and compliance professionals to strengthen trust, transparency, and professionalism in international trade. Its work spans the full spectrum of trade and supply chain compliance, including customs and trade compliance, export controls, product safety, sustainability, risk governance, and trade remedies such as tariffs and anti-dumping measures.