Can COMAC mirror BYD’s growth trajectory amid aviation’s Boeing–Airbus duopoly?
20 Feb 202610 min read
Summary
- For decades, commercial aviation has been shaped by two names. Airbus and Boeing dominate global fleets and the supplier networks that sit behind them.
- But the strain is visible. Backlogs stretch years ahead. Production remains constrained. Airlines across Asia are growing, yet delivery slots are increasingly scarce.
- China’s COMAC is stepping into this space with the C919. The real question is not whether COMAC can build aircraft. It is whether it can break into a market that has been structurally closed for decades.
China’s success with BYD in the global electric vehicle market has reshaped expectations about how deeply Chinese manufacturers can disrupt established industries. What was once an American and European-dominated landscape is now contested. A similar question is now emerging in aviation: could China’s COMAC become a BYD-style inflection point for aircraft manufacturing?For decades, commercial aviation has been dominated by a tight duopoly between Europe’s Airbus and the United States’ Boeing. According to the International Air Transport Association, both manufacturers account for almost 80% of the world’s aircraft fleet, shaping not only commercial aviation but also aircraft supply chains and route economics.In recent years, however, both companies have come under intensified scrutiny. In 2024, a Boeing 737 MAX 9 suffered a mid-air panel detachment shortly after takeoff, renewing global concerns over manufacturing quality and safety oversight. The incident reopened issues, most notably the fatal 2018–2019 737 MAX crashes, including Lion Air Flight 610, which led to a worldwide grounding of the aircraft type.These concerns have translated into regulatory consequences. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration imposed production limits on Boeing, restricting increases in output through early-2025. As of Q4 2025, Boeing held 4,774 737 MAX aircraft on its backlog, which represents 6.3 years of production.Airbus, despite a comparatively stronger safety record, has not been immune to industry headwinds. Like its U.S. counterpart, Airbus has grappled with lingering supply chain bottlenecks, particularly for high-demand families such as the A320neo and widebody jets. Airbus lowered its 2025 delivery target due to a supplier quality issue affecting the A320 family fuselage panels, disrupting production schedules and delaying aircraft being handed over to airlines.Supply chain fragility and cautious production increases have kept output below desired levels, lengthening delivery timelines for airlines worldwide. Aircraft lessor Avolon has warned that delivery slots for new Airbus and Boeing narrowbody aircraft could extend into the 2030s and even the 2040s, reflecting historically full order books and slower-than-expected production ramp-ups.Asia, in particular, faces heightened vulnerability due to its reliance on Airbus and Boeing. According to aviation analytics company Cirium, forecasts suggest that almost 46,000 aircrafts will be delivered in the next 20 years with 46% of the demand coming from Asia. Meanwhile, the global aircraft backlog remains near record levels, equivalent to nearly 14 years of production, underscoring persistent delivery pressure on Airbus and Boeing.
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“Air traffic in the Asia-Pacific region is booming, but airlines are stymied in meeting growing demand due to supply chain issues impacting new aircraft deliveries, labour issues and rising costs,” Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said at Routes Asia 2025.
Enter China’s COMAC
COMAC’s rise reflects a deliberate push beyond incremental supply to a captive domestic market toward deeper industrial capability across aircraft design, certification, and manufacturing, with the long-term goal of global competitiveness. China’s answer to the duopoly started with the C909, a relatively smaller jet with the capacity of 78-90 passengers. The C909 was designed to solve a practical problem. It serves short and secondary routes, particularly at smaller airports where operating costs and flexibility are key. In China and parts of Southeast Asia (SEA), the aircraft has found a role as a workhorse. Making its first international flight in July 2025, the C909 has since carried over 24 million passengers in 700 routes in its nine years of operation. The C919 was the next step. Designed to carry up to 174 passengers over short to medium routes, the narrowbody aircraft targets the most commercially significant part of global aviation. This is the market dominated by the Airbus A320 family and the Boeing 737. While the C919 is also currently facing supply chain issues related to engine procurement, competition from the duopoly has prompted stakeholders to inject over $6.2 billion, an 88% percent increase in capital for COMAC.
Where adoption is happening, and likely to grow
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“[What] COMAC does enjoy is a huge domestic market, where China will perhaps consume as many as 15% of all new single-aisle deliveries,” says Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Cirium
COMAC’s aircraft have gained their earliest and most meaningful traction at home, where domestic deployment has been central to the program’s growth. The C919 entered commercial service in late 2022 and is now operated by China’s three largest state-owned airlines: China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and China Southern Airlines. While fewer than 20 C919 aircraft are currently in active service, total orders for the type stand at 713, with deliveries scheduled through 2032. Air China is the largest buyer and is expected to become the aircraft’s biggest operator over time.The C909 continues to form the backbone of COMAC’s in-service fleet. Nearly 200 C909 aircraft are currently operating across China, accounting for the majority of COMAC’s active aircraft. As of mid-2025, China Southern Airlines and Air China each operated around 40 COMAC aircraft, primarily C909s with a small number of C919s. China Eastern Airlines operated 38 COMAC aircraft, including 11 C919s, making it the largest operator of China’s flagship narrowbody to date.Outside China, COMAC’s international footprint remains limited but is beginning to take shape, particularly through smaller regional airlines with the C909 being its primary export. The C909’s lower capacity, shorter range, and reduced certification complexity have made it more suitable for initial overseas deployment. Airlines in SEA have been among the earliest adopters. Indonesia’s TransNusa Airlines became the first non-Chinese airline to operate the C909 with COMAC’s with the first of approximately 30 deliveries made in 2022. The Indonesian airline currently has five C909’s in its fleet.Air Cambodia has also become COMAC’s largest international customer. In September 2025, COMAC and Air Cambodia signed a major deal for 10 firm orders of C909, and 10 options. It has also marked the first variant of the aircraft in a medical services configuration to be used for critical care transfer. Laos has also been a major international customer with Lao Airlines receiving two C909’s in March and September 2025. Interest in the C919 is more tentative. The aircraft remains operated exclusively by Chinese carriers, largely because it lacks certification from major international regulators such as the FAA and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency. This has effectively limited its export potential now. However, airlines are increasingly acknowledging the aircraft as a future option. AirAsia for example has publicly confirmed discussions with COMAC regarding the C919, citing prolonged delivery backlogs at Airbus and Boeing and strong growth in Asian air travel.
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“We’re in active discussions to buy the C919,” said Tony Fernandes, CEO of Capital A, parent company of AirAsia. “We’re the first foreign airline to be working with Comac [on a deal for the C919].”
Similarly, in May 2025, Europe’s Ryanair wrote to reconsider its $30 billion order with Boeing if escalating U.S. trade policies result in higher aircraft prices. In a letter to U.S Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, CEO Micheal O’Leary noted how it would reassess its Boeing orders citing an indication of finding alternatives, including COMAC. O’Leary has remarked that the airline would consider a COMAC aircraft if it were priced significantly below comparable Airbus models.
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“If it was cheap enough – 10 or 20% cheaper than an Airbus aircraft – then we’d order it,” said O’Leary in an Interview with Skift.
While no solid orders have been made, if such discussions were to result in a firm order or entry into service, it would mark a significant symbolic milestone. A foreign carrier operating the C919 would not immediately upend the Airbus–Boeing duopoly, but it would signal a shift in airline willingness to consider alternatives in one of the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets.
Savior or challenger?
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“The barriers to entry in the large commercial aircraft market have always been huge,” says Morris
Philippine’s Cebu Pacific CEO Mike Szucs said international certification would be a key milestone before the airline considers the aircraft. “COMAC will have to go through the certification requirements, principally with the FAA and IATA,” Szucs said in a CNA interview. “That’s clearly on their milestones, and it’s clearly going to happen at some point. As soon as COMAC is available, it’s something that we will consider.”Supply chain constraints are also a challenge. Despite its domestic branding, the C919 relies heavily on foreign-sourced engines, avionics, and key components supplied by Western firms. Geopolitical tensions and export controls complicate access. For example, in response to China’s export ban of critical materials to the U.S, in May 2025, the U.S. government suspended the export licenses for the LEAP-1C engines to China. While the suspension was lifted in July, China is actively working to localize more of the supply chain.Production capacity is also a limiting factor. Demand for narrowbody aircraft is surging, driven by traffic growth in Asia and the replacement of aging fleets. According to Cirium, there are currently 33,000 expected deliveries in the next decade. The question next is whether COMAC can capture a significant share of that market. On paper, the orderbook looks good. Cirium’s fleet database records 998 C919 aircraft on firm order. However, the structure of that backlog, scheduled through 2040, has a significantly longer horizon than Airbus or Boeing. Moreover, the majority of those orders are domestic. Airlines are conservative by design. Fleet decisions involve multi-decade commitments, pilot training, maintenance infrastructure, and residual value risk. Many carriers are notably cautious about introducing new aircraft types.At the same time, the pace of the market cuts both ways. Extended delivery backlogs at Airbus and Boeing, rising leasing costs, and constrained growth are forcing airlines to reassess long-held assumptions about China. In this environment, even an imperfect alternative can turn eyes if it promises availability, cost advantages, or leverage.
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“It's great that there is potential for another manufacturer of jets coming onto the scene. Competition improves products and also improves economics,” says Szucs.
Szucs’ remarks capture the growing openness among airlines. According to Morris, the opportunity for COMAC is real, but expectations should be tempered. “There is no doubt that the door is potentially open for COMAC to step through and join Airbus and Boeing in the large commercial aircraft market,” he says. “The pace at which COMAC will walk through that door is relatively slower than Airbus walked through the same door more than 30 years ago.”COMAC’s position today is neither a savior poised to relieve global supply constraints nor a challenger to be dismissed. Whether it becomes one or the other will depend on how quickly it can overcome certification, supply chain, and scale in a market that is growing impatient for alternatives.Aviation is not electric vehicles, and COMAC faces hurdles BYD never did. Still, BYD’s rise changed assumptions about what Chinese manufacturers could achieve globally. Founded in 1995 and entering auto production in the early 2000s, BYD took roughly two decades to grow from a domestic player into the world’s largest seller of electric vehicles in 2025. COMAC is now testing whether those assumptions can shift in aviation as well.